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Data-Driven Football
Method

The metrics, explained

We try not to use a number on this site without defining it first. Here is the working vocabulary - the advanced soccer stats we lean on most, in plain English, with the same data feed behind them.

01
Expected goals
xG

The probability a shot becomes a goal, between 0 and 1.

Every shot is scored against thousands of historical attempts from the same location, angle, body part and situation. A tap-in might read 0.76; a speculative effort from 30 yards, 0.03. Sum a team's shots and you get the goals an average finisher would have scored from those exact chances. It measures chance quality, not luck and not finishing skill.

02
Regressed expected goals
rxG

Expected goals, stabilised so small samples stop lying to you.

Raw xG over five or six matches is noisy: one penalty or one broken-play scramble can swing a team's number by half a goal. rxG shrinks each side's per-90 xG toward the league and opponent-adjusted baseline in proportion to how few minutes you have on them, then weights recent matches more heavily. The result is the figure we actually trust for ranking attacks - it moves less, and it predicts the next match's xG better than the raw rolling average.

03
Defensive index
d_index

A 0-100 composite of how well a side suppresses chances, not just shots.

d_index folds four signals into one comparable score: expected goals conceded per 90, the share of opponent shots forced from low-value zones, PPDA, and the time a team spends with the ball in its own third. Each input is converted to a league percentile and weighted toward the things that actually keep the ball out - chance suppression over raw tackle counts. A d_index of 80 means a defence sits in the top fifth of the league at limiting good chances; it is the single number we lead defensive write-ups with.

04
Passes per defensive action
PPDA

How many passes the opponent completes before you challenge.

Count the passes a team allows in the attacking two-thirds for each tackle, interception or foul they make. A low number means relentless pressing; a high one means sitting off. PPDA turns the vague idea of 'pressing intensity' into a single comparable figure you can track match to match.

05
Progressive passes
PrgP

Passes that move the ball meaningfully toward goal.

A pass counts as progressive when it advances the ball at least a set distance closer to the opponent's goal line, outside the defensive third. It rewards the players who break lines and start attacks, not the ones who pad a completion percentage with sideways balls in their own half.

06
Percentile rank
%ile

Where a player sits against peers in the same position.

Raw numbers lie across positions - a centre-back's pass count means nothing next to a winger's. Percentiles fix the comparison: the 90th percentile means a player out-performs 90% of others in their role on that metric. Stack several on a radar and you get a position-fair profile in one glance.

See it live

These metrics, updated as the ball moves

InplayRadar computes rxG, d_index, PPDA and percentile profiles live across 62 competitions. Read the definitions here, then see them applied in the expected-goals modelling guides.

See the models applied